稍微更新一下吧！
照著美國新聞抄當然是沒在現場記者的本分，只不過，有得時候更新的太慢，實在是讓人OX。
美國職棒》網站預測：季後賽3搶2 道奇居劣勢
記者倪婉君／綜合外電報導 【2006/09/27 聯合報】
王建民確定能打季後賽，那郭泓志呢？教士、道奇及費城人形成的國聯3搶2「獵殺紅色十月」的大混戰中，棒球網站Baseball Prospectus預測道奇出線機會只有4成7，機會最小，道奇真的需要郭董發威。
昨天道奇隊休兵，教士6：5贏紅雀，在國聯西區拉大與道奇的勝場差至兩場，不過費城人4：5輸太空人，使得道奇在外卡追上費城人並列第1。
3隊各剩6場客場比賽，Base-ball Prospectus網站根據各隊客場戰績進行預測，教士隊的晉級機率高達89.0%，居3隊之冠，費城人則有63.7%，而道奇隊僅47.2%。
去Baseball Prospectus的網站看看，他們特別計算的Playoff Odds Report或是用OLE調整的Playoff Odds Report (ELO adjusted)，PECOTA調整的Playoff Odds Report (PECOTA adjusted)，的確有各隊打進季後賽的機率，只不過目前最新的結果如下：（Generated Tue Sep 26 09:26:20 EDT 2006）。
using ELO as the determining factor
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.3 85.2 79.5 77.8 71.6
NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Mets 93 63 1536. 96.3 65.7 100.00000 .00000 100.00000
Phillies 82 74 1530. 85.2 76.8 .00000 55.30027 55.30027
Marlins 76 80 1504. 79.3 82.7 .00000 .00134 .00134
Braves 75 81 1500. 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Nationals 69 87 1460. 71.6 90.4 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 83.8 81.1 79.4 75.7 68.1 65.4
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Cardinals 80 75 1485. 83.8 78.2 92.11380 .02390 92.13770
Astros 78 78 1506. 81.0 81.0 6.89950 .06850 6.96800
Reds 77 79 1465. 79.6 82.4 .98670 .00231 .98901
Brewers 73 83 1464. 75.7 86.3 .00000 .00000 .00000
Pirates 65 91 1468. 68.1 93.9 .00000 .00000 .00000
Cubs 63 94 1445. 65.5 96.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 87.3 84.9 78.5 77.2 76.1
NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Padres 84 72 1530. 87.2 74.8 88.63330 7.36369 95.99699
Dodgers 82 74 1504. 85.0 77.0 11.36670 37.24000 48.60670
Giants 75 81 1471. 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Diamondbacks 74 82 1473. 76.8 85.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Rockies 74 82 1484. 77.1 84.9 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by NL Wild Card: 85.7
with some help from PECOTA
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.2 85.0 79.5 77.8 71.8
NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Mets 93 63 .541 96.2 65.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000
Phillies 82 74 .498 85.0 77.0 .00000 50.07392 50.07392
Marlins 76 80 .482 79.2 82.8 .00000 .00174 .00174
Braves 75 81 .483 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Nationals 69 87 .450 71.8 90.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 83.7 81.2 79.6 75.8 67.9 65.5
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Cardinals 80 75 .469 83.7 78.3 90.65753 .03425 90.69178
Astros 78 78 .499 81.1 80.9 7.90233 .08983 7.99216
Reds 77 79 .465 79.9 82.1 1.44013 .00529 1.44542
Brewers 73 83 .459 75.8 86.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Pirates 65 91 .414 67.8 94.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Cubs 63 94 .440 65.5 96.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 87.2 84.9 78.6 77.3 76.1
NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Padres 84 72 .532 87.1 74.9 87.04650 8.87978 95.92628
Dodgers 82 74 .530 85.0 77.0 12.95350 40.91519 53.86869
Giants 75 81 .485 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Diamondbacks 74 82 .486 76.9 85.1 .00000 .00000 .00000
Rockies 74 82 .492 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by NL Wild Card: 85.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.2 84.9 79.5 77.8 71.8
NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Mets 93 63 .545 96.2 65.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000
Phillies 82 74 .495 84.9 77.1 .00000 50.02117 50.02117
Marlins 76 80 .486 79.3 82.7 .00000 .00183 .00183
Braves 75 81 .481 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Nationals 69 87 .451 71.8 90.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 83.8 81.3 79.6 75.7 67.9 65.4
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Cardinals 80 75 .471 83.7 78.3 90.78365 .03856 90.82221
Astros 78 78 .498 81.1 80.9 7.80680 .10121 7.90801
Reds 77 79 .466 79.9 82.1 1.40955 .00541 1.41496
Brewers 73 83 .458 75.7 86.3 .00000 .00000 .00000
Pirates 65 91 .413 67.8 94.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Cubs 63 94 .440 65.5 96.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 87.1 84.9 78.6 77.3 76.2
NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Padres 84 72 .530 87.0 75.0 87.11880 8.86423 95.98304
Dodgers 82 74 .528 85.0 77.0 12.88120 40.96759 53.84879
Giants 75 81 .485 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Diamondbacks 74 82 .488 76.9 85.1 .00000 .00000 .00000
Rockies 74 82 .495 77.1 84.9 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by NL Wild Card: 85.6除了用ELO調整的是費城人高於道奇之外(55.3 > 48.6)，其他兩個都是道奇戰優勢（50.07 < 53.86）與（50.02 < 53.84），怎麼看費城人都沒多佔便宜。仔細再往前推一天，會發現費城人多半場勝差，所以新聞可是用再前一天的戰績，費城人多半場勝差當然比較佔優勢。
只不過，由於新聞是27日才見報，卻用美國時間25日的戰績，這樣有夠遜，別忘記球季每一天的每一場比賽都是關鍵萬分阿，假如真的更新不及，那用這則新聞之前沒有仔細確認，實在是讓人搖頭再搖頭阿！
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